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10:15 p.m. Friday: Latest National Weather Service Bulletins

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

1015 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2008



EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-

…MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES..



THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM

* BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR THE SIERRA NORTH OF

INTERSTATE 80.

* BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF

INTERSTATE 80 INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE

COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR RENO…CARSON

CITY…MINDEN AND GARDNERVILLE.

* WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR LYON…PERSHING

CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTIES.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN

NEVADA.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA…WITH

IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SEVERAL ROADS IN THE SIERRA ARE

CLOSED…WITH INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER IN THE SIERRA TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE AFFECTING WESTERN NEVADA.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW … REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILES AT TIMES. LOCAL WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF PREPARING FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE … SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. CITIZENS CAN ASSIST IN THIS EFFORT BY STAYING INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO.

THE STAFF OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO WOULD LIKE TO

THANK OUR MANY DEDICATED WEATHER SPOTTERS WHO ARE CALLING IN

WEATHER REPORTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CALL IN YOUR VALUABLE REPORTS.

FOR THE SIERRA…FORECAST TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH UP TO 7 FEET ALONG THE SIERRA

CREST.

* 2 TO 3 FEET BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE

BASIN.

FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA…TOTALS THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING

* UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 18 INCHES IN THE

FOOTHILLS.

GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE AND CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.

FOR THE SIERRA RIDGES…WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 110 MPH WILL CONTINUE.

BELOW 7000 FEET IN THE SIERRA…GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL

CONTINUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES

NEAR ZERO.

* SEVERAL ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 80.

* DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK!

ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA DUE TO THE

DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH ZERO

VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. STAY AT HOME!

WEATHER SPOTTERS AROUND THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN ARE REPORTING

SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE. SNOWFALL RATES OF

THIS MAGNITUDE WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS AND

EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TO KEEP ROADS PASSABLE AND TO ASSIST STRANDED VEHICLES. IF YOU ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA YOUR CHANCES OF BEING STRANDED IS VERY HIGH.

DELAY ALL TRAVEL PLANS IN THE SIERRA UNTIL THE STORM PASSES AND

ROAD CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTERNATE ROUTES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE…AS DANGEROUS BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL ROADS CROSSING THE SIERRA FROM LASSEN

COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY.

* TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT.

MANY ROADS ARE SLICK AND SNOW COVERED WITH CHAIN REQUIREMENTS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE CREATING SNOW DRIFT OVER ROADWAYS…ALONG WITH

LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

http://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

954 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

…MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES SEVERAL FEET ALREADY REPORTED IN

THE SIERRA..

.EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THE SIERRA ARE CREATING DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA AND LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT PASS LEVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BELOW

7000 FEET THIS EVENING.

WEATHER SPOTTERS IN THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN HAVE REPORTED 2 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW. REMOTE SENSORS IN THE HIGH SIERRA HAVE RECORED MORE THAN 3 FEET OF SNOW TODAY. SPOTTERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO HAVE REPORTED UP TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 4 PM.

STAY AT HOME! SEVERAL SIERRA ROADS ARE CLOSED…INCLUDING

INTERSTATE 80. ..DUE TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES

AND INCREASING AVALANCHE DANGER.

ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK!

EXTREMELY HIGH SNOWFALL RATES WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ROAD

CREWS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TO KEEP ROADS PASSABLE AND TO ASSIST STRANDED VEHICLES.

IF YOU ATTEMPT TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA YOUR CHANCES OF BEING

STRANDED FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IS VERY HIGH. REMAIN INDOORS

DURING THIS BLIZZARD…EVEN A SHORT WALK OUTDOORS COULD BE DEADLY

AS YOU WILL BECOME DISORIENTED IN THE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

BELOW 6000 FEET…PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL

PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINTER CONDITIONS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF

EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF PREPARING FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE…SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. CITIZENS CAN ASSIST IN THIS EFFORT BY STAYING INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE STAFF OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO WOULD LIKE TO

THANK OUR MANY DEDICATED WEATHER SPOTTERS WHO ARE CALLING IN

WEATHER REPORTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CALL IN YOUR VALUABLE

REPORTS.

GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SOUTH LAKE TAHOE…TAHOE CITY..

TRUCKEE…MARKLEEVILLE…BRIDGEPORT…COLEVILLE…LEE VINING..

MAMMOTH LAKES…GLENBROOK…INCLINE VILLAGE

954 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY.

HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE

SOUTH TO MONO COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 6 INCHES PER HOUR ARE

LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE LOWER

ELEVATIONS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH

AMOUNTS UP TO 7 FEET ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WILL OCCUR BY

SATURDAY MORNING. BELOW 7000 FEET INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE

BASIN…2 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70

MPH IN MONO COUNTY AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

GUSTS OF 100 TO 110 MPH OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES WILL SLOWLY

DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE

HEAVY SNOW TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE AT SIERRA

PASSES…WITH PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REACHING LOWER

ELEVATIONS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS WILL

PRODUCE ZERO VISIBILITY. DO NOT TRAVEL IN THESE CONDITIONS. IF

YOU GET STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Periods of snow. Low around 23. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Occasional snow showers. High near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Periods of snow. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Periods of snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 25. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.

A chance of snow showers before 4am, then periods of rain. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Periods of rain mixed with snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37.

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

HEAVY SNOW FALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THROUGH MIDNIGHT SNOW FALL RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TRUCKEE TO RENO TO FALLON WILL REACH UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE VALLEYS. RATES ABOVE 6000 FEET COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO 609 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

MESOSCALE UPDATE… NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE RENO CWA AS OF 2Z…HELPING LOWER THE SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY FLOORS.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS ARE THE INSANE SNOWFALL RATES WE ARE SEEING…AT LEAST 3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH LOCALIZED RATES OF CLOSE TO 6 INCHES. WE`VE SEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES … THUNDERSNOW IN THE BAND JUST PUSHING THROUGH RENO-TAHOE RIGHT NOW.

LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW AT THE RENO AIRPORT…DEFINITELY A RARE OCCURRENCE. NUMEROUS FLIGHTS ARE BEING CANCELED.

I-80 IS NOW CLOSED PER CALTRANS REPORTS AND ROADS AROUND THE RENO AREA ARE BECOMING TREACHEROUS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD IN THE SIERRA WITH ZERO VISIBILITIES.

WE HAVE LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GREAT BASIN AREAS EXPIRE AS OF 6 PM…WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE VALLEY AREAS OF WESTERN NEVADA. BUT HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH GUSTS 60-100 MPH LIKELY ON THE RIDGE TOPS!

WE HAVE ALSO LET THE FLOOD WARNING EXPIRE AS SNOW LEVELS DROP. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SPOTS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. FOR KRNO AIRPORT…WE ARE EXPECTING THIS BAND OF INTENSE SNOWFALL TO LEAST THROUGH AT LEAST 4Z…WITH VSBYS NEAR 1/4M AND RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS HIGH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

556 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-

…MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTING INTO THE SIERRA..

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM

* BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR THE SIERRA NORTH OF

INTERSTATE 80.

* BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF

INTERSTATE 80 INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE

COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR RENO…CARSON

CITY…MINDEN AND GARDNERVILLE.

* WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR LYON…PERSHING

CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTIES.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA

THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY FLOORS.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA…WITH

IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SEVERAL ROADS IN THE SIERRA ARE

CLOSED. AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE IN THE SIERRA TONIGHT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF PREPARING FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE…SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. CITIZENS CAN ASSIST IN THIS EFFORT BY STAYING INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO.

THE STAFF OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO WOULD LIKE TO

THANK OUR MANY DEDICATED WEATHER SPOTTERS WHO ARE CALLING IN

WEATHER REPORTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CALL IN YOUR VALUABLE REPORTS.

FOR THE SIERRA…FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SIERRA

CREST.

* 1 TO 3 FEET BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE

BASIN.

FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA…FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS.

WINDS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS

THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE AND CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.

FOR THE SIERRA RIDGES…WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 110 MPH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

BELOW 7000 FEET IN THE SIERRA…GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL

CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO.

* INTERSTATE 80 IS CLOSED FROM THE NEVADA STATE LINE TO

APPLEGATE.

* PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA STATE ROUTES 88 AND 89 ARE CLOSED.

* HIGHWAY 395 IS CLOSED FROM BRIDGEPORT TO STATE ROUTE 167.

* MT ROSE HIGHWAY – NEVADA STATE ROUTE 431 IS CLOSED.

* DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK!

ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA DUE TO THE

DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH ZERO

VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. STAY AT HOME!

WEATHER SPOTTERS AROUND THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN ARE REPORTING

SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3

TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT…AND MAKE IT

IMPOSSIBLE FOR ROAD CREWS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TO KEEP ROADS PASSABLE AND TO ASSIST STRANDED VEHICLES. IF YOU ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA YOUR CHANCES OF BEING STRANDED IS VERY HIGH.

DELAY ALL TRAVEL PLANS IN THE SIERRA UNTIL THE STORM PASSES AND

ROAD CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALTERNATE ROUTES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE…AS DANGEROUS BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL ROADS CROSSING THE SIERRA FROM LASSEN

COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY.

* TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA

WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO VALLEY

FLOORS. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW…SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER

HOUR…AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE.

http://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Occasional snow showers. High near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Periods of snow. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Periods of snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 25. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Southwest wind around 10 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27.

A chance of snow showers before 4am, then periods of rain. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Periods of rain mixed with snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37.

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

347 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

958MB LOW WEST OF SEA AS OF 23Z! IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENTS

CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA.

WE ARE NOW SEEING THE SWITCHOVER TO SNOW AS COLD FRONTAL BAND

MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA. JUST NOW GOING OVER TO SNOW HERE IN THE RENO AREA. IT IS EASY IDENTIFY THE POSITION OF THE

COLD FRONTAL BAND IN RADAR VELOCITY DATA … AND WE ARE SEEING

ENHANCEMENTS IN THE REFLECTIVITY WITH EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING

STRIKES.

THIS INDICATES THAT WE ARE HEADING INTO A MORE

COLD/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIP RATES!

SIX INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. WE ARE

RIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF INCOMING DRY SLOT…AND THIS IS

TYPICALLY AN AREA FAVORED FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

BASED ON LATEST UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC DATA…WORST OF THIS STORM SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 6-9Z TONIGHT…THOUGH SNOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CREST THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW…AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WRN NV THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. REFER TO THOSE PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS…ALONG WITH OUR DETAILED SUMMARY

WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT HYDRO/FLOODING ISSUES IN THE

WESTERN NV VALLEYS…EVEN FOR A PERIOD AFTER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING IN THE RENO-SPARKS AREA. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE CURRENT AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO … BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION CLOSER TO 4 PM. RIVERS ARE RISING BUT WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW MONITOR STAGE … AND BELOW FLOOD. SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS ESPECIALLY IN THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN FULL AND FAST … AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW AT ALL LEVELS WITHOUT HAVING TO WAIT FOR A CHANGEOVER SINCE THE REGION WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE COLD AIR MASS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH A COMMON SIERRA STORM AT 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN.

AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN WITH SEVERAL INCHES DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR IN THE RENO-CARSON AREA. WHEN THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WIND DOWN … A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL PROBABLY REPLACE IT FOR THE CA ZONES.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS… SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH POSSIBLE LOW END WARNING AMOUNTS FROM RENO NORTH TO NRN WASHOE/SURPRISE VALLEY ZONES.

COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY ACCUMULATE SUN NIGHT IF A WEAK IMPULSE HOLDS TOGETHER WITHIN THE CYCLONIC W-NW FLOW ALOFT.

SPLITTING TROF MOVING ONSHORE TUESDAY WILL STILL CARRY A DECENT

AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS IT REACHES THE SIERRA. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER COUPLE FEET OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHILE PRELIMINARY SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET MAY MAKE FOR A POTENTIAL SLUSHY MIX AGAIN IN THE TAHOE BASIN DURING PART OF THE DAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW. THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THE CERTAINTY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA HAS IMPROVED…SO POPS WERE RAISED UP TO 70-80% FROM TAHOE NWD ON TUESDAY AND INCLUDING MONO COUNTY TUES NIGHT.

AFTER A SHORT BREAK WEDNESDAY…ANOTHER WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITHIN COLDER AIR MASS THREATENS TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS RESEMBLES MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS IF IT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AS THE GFS BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE ECMWF SPREADS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NORTH ZONES. WITH SO MUCH ATTENTION DEVOTED TO THE SHORT TERM STORM EVENT…FOR NOW THE

FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE DRIER SCENARIO.

12Z MODELS ARE IN AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS RIGHT

ON TRACK FOR NOW. HEAVY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING…WITH SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND 7000 FEET OVER THE RENO-TAHOE AREA.

CURRENT FORECAST IS WORKING OUT WELL WITH SNOW LEVELS COMING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN LOOKS TO BE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND LAKE TAHOE BY ABOUT 11 AM … WITH RAIN CONTINUING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS MOST OF THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ANY SNOW IN THE RENO AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE

EARLY EVENING.

CURRENTLY AROUND THE RENO AREA … WE`VE SEEN ABOUT 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS … WITH HEAVIER PRECIP STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WE ARE MONITORING THE RAINFALL RATES CLOSELY WITH RESPECT TO THE HAWKEN AND LARSON BURN AREAS. BUT AT THIS TIME…WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS AS FAR AS FLASH FLOODING FROM THE BURN SCARS.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS

WELL. WIND GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA CREST ARE CURRENTLY ANYWHERE FROM 100 TO 120 MPH AND EXPECTED TO STAY VERY STRONG…DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

WE WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE MOST

UPDATED INFORMATION.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

759 AM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-

EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-

MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-

MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM

…CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS..

* BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR THE SIERRA NORTH OF

INTERSTATE 80.

* BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF

INTERSTATE 80 INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY.

* HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY

AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY.

* HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM TODAY FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY-

MINDEN AREA.

* HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR LYON…MINERAL..

CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES.

* WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY FOR

NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY.

* WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM TODAY T0 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE

RENO-CARSON CITY AREA SOUTH TO MINDEN AND GARDNERVILLE.

* WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TODAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR

WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95.

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL

IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL COMBINE WITH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SIERRA.

HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHEAST

CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING … THIS INCLUDES THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH HEAVY SNOW TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF PREPARING FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE…SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. CITIZENS CAN ASSIST IN THIS EFFORT BY STAYING INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO.

…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS..

FOR THE SIERRA…FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SIERRA

CREST.

* 1 TO 3 FEET BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE

BASIN.

FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA…FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* 4 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 16 INCHES IN THE

FOOTHILLS.

…WINDS..

STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST.

FOR THE SIERRA RIDGES…WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120

MPH WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 110 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 150 MPH AFTER

NOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND WESTERN NEVADA…WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 MPH WITH

GUSTS TO 65 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG HIGHWAYS 95 AND 395 MAY EXCEED 80 MPH TODAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY LOWER

VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES.

WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY DOWN TREES…UTILITY POLES…AND

DAMAGE FENCES AND ROOFS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY OVER TURN IF

ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN AREAS OF STRONG CROSS WINDS.

* DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA TODAY AND SATURDAY.

* ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK!

MOST SIERRA ROADS WILL BE CLOSED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THIS

STORM DUE TO THE DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH ZERO

VISIBILITY WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR FROM THIS

MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE NEAR 6 INCHES PER HOUR.

THESE VERY HIGH SNOWFALL RATES WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ROAD

CREWS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TO KEEP ROADS PASSABLE AND TO ASSIST STRANDED VEHICLES. IF YOU DO ATTEMPT TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA YOUR CHANCES OF BEING STRANDED FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IS VERY HIGH.

DELAY ALL TRAVEL PLANS IN THE SIERRA UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES

AND ROAD CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTERNATE ROUTES WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE…AS DANGEROUS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL ROADS CROSSING THE SIERRA FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY.

* HIGHWAY 395 CURRENTLY HAS RESTRICTIONS TO CAMPERS…TRAILERS AND PERMIT LOADS.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL REACH THE LOWER VALLEYS THIS MORNING AND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A

FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET. THIS MAY

CAUSE RISES ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS WITH SOME RUNOFF ON

RECENTLY BURNED SLOPES SUCH AS THE HAWKEN FIRE SITE NEAR RENO AND THE LARSON FIRE NEAR COLEVILLE.

NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THIS STORM.

” HOON

http://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

410 AM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

…A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW CAUSING

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA..

.EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA AND LAKE TAHOE BASIN TODAY

THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE SIERRA PASSES. ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK! EXTREMELY HIGH

SNOWFALL RATES WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ROAD CREWS AND

EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TO KEEP ROADS PASSABLE AND TO ASSIST STRANDED VEHICLES. IF YOU DO ATTEMPT TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA YOUR CHANCES OF BEING STRANDED FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IS VERY HIGH. REMAIN INDOORS DURING THIS BLIZZARD…EVEN A SHORT WALK OUTDOORS COULD BE DEADLY AS YOU WILL BECOME DISORIENTED IN THE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH ZERO VISIBILITY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS

CONDITIONS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF PREPARING FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE … SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. CITIZENS CAN ASSIST IN THIS EFFORT BY STAYING INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SOUTH LAKE TAHOE…TAHOE CITY..

TRUCKEE…MARKLEEVILLE…BRIDGEPORT…COLEVILLE…LEE VINING..

MAMMOTH LAKES…GLENBROOK…INCLINE VILLAGE

410 AM PST FRI JAN 4 2008

…BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY..

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY.

SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE

EASTERN SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE SOUTH TO MONO COUNTY. THE SNOW

COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN BELOW 7000 FEET AROUND MIDDAY… BEFORE SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BELOW 6000 FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE SIERRA

CREST…AND 2 TO 3 FEET BELOW 7000 FEET…INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE

BASIN. IN ADDITION…STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND EVEN

DEEPER SNOW DRIFTS.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH THE MOST

DANGEROUS WINDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS OVER 150 MPH

OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THE

HEAVY SNOW TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT ALL SIERRA PASSES..

WITH A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REACHING LOWER ELEVATIONS

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE ZERO VISIBILITY. DO NOT TRAVEL IN THESE CONDITIONS.

IF YOU GET STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

http://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

Periods of rain before 1 p.m., then periods of snow. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 41. Breezy, with a south wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. Total daytime snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible.

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Occasional snow showers. High near 28. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Periods of snow. Low around 18. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent.

Periods of snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 26. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90 percent.

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.

A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 34.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM IS JUST ON THE DOORSTEP AT THIS TIME. SEE ALL THE SUPPLEMENTAL STATEMENTS…WATCHES…AND WARNINGS THAT ARE OUT. ALSO SEE THE LINKS FROM THE TOP OF OUR HOMEPAGE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION…WINTER SAFETY TIPS…AND LATEST STORM REPORTS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARING 130W RIDING A STRONG JET STREAM. SATELLITE DERIVED JET LEVEL WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 235 KTS!!!! WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF NOW INSIDE 130W AT AROUND 35N. THIS FEATURE IS POINTED DIRECTLY AT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES ESTIMATED CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.

WIND HAVE BACKED OFF TEMPORARILY ACROSS THE AREA…BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN AS MAIN PRECIP SHIELD MOVES INTO THE

SIERRA. AS FAR AS WIND POTENTIAL…LOOKS TO BE VERY GOOD FOR

STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTS OVER 100 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND 75 MPH IN THE VALLEYS NEAR RENO…GERLACH…HAWTHORNE.

THEN PRECIP SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES…AREA WILL BE ONLY WEAKLY STABLE WHICH WILL PROMOTE IMMEDIATE SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF GARDNERVILLE AND WEST OF FERNLEY. DYNAMICS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE PRECIP TOWARDS FERNLEY FALLON AT THIS TIME SO THE STRONGEST WINDS THERE ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z…AS WELL AS THE HAWTHORNE/YERINGTON AREAS. THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL AREAS.

AS FAR AS THE SIERRA…WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE THIS MORNING TO NEAR 6500 TO 7000 FEET…THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WILL QUICKLY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN STARTING AROUND NOON.

EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OR MORE WILL MAKE ANY TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. IN ADDITION…RIDGE GUSTS OF UP TO 200 MPH WILL OCCUR.

AS DAY SHIFT MENTIONED… SNOWFALL RATES OF 6 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS…AND MAY EVEN BE HEAVIER AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW IN THE SIERRA WILL BE SEVERAL FEET…AND WILL BE INCREASING ACCUMULATION AROUND LAKE TAHOE AS SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT RISE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT DUE TO THE EXTREME PRECIP RATES. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LET UP AFTER MIDNIGHT MANY AREAS…BUT IT WILL STILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES…JUST NOT EXTREME. WINDS WILL ALSO LET UP SOME … BUT GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NEVADA…THIS WILL BE A VERY IMPRESSIVE EVENT. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE…WEAKLY STABLE TO UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES…STRONG CROSS BARRIER MID-LEVEL WINDS…EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT HEAVY AMOUNTS INTO RENO WITH 1.5-2 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT AT THE AIRPORT WITH UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. CARSON CITY/MINDEN WILL SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

COLD POOL ALOFT KEEPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION

SATURDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THE

WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW WILL HAVE DIMINISHED…THE SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER PERSISTENT WITH SO MUCH INSTABILITY AND ANY BREAK IN THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE NRN ZONES AND THE BEST JET DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SIERRA EXTENDING INTO THE IMMEDIATE LEESIDE…

SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LONGER BREAK IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ZONES.

THE JET DYNAMICS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE PRECIP BAND WILL FIRST INTENSIFY OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL SIERRA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE SRN SIERRA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE STILL IN THE COLD SECTOR…SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND PRECIP SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPILLING OVER THE SIERRA. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LEESIDE VALLEYS IN ADDITION TO THE SIERRA.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

EVENING LOOK TO BE ANOTHER 12 TO 18 INCHES IN THE SIERRA WITH AROUND 6 INCHES IN THE LEESIDE VALLEYS. AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY WHICH SHOULD GET THE BEST SPILLOVER FROM THE WARNERS … HOWEVER THE GREAT BASIN ZONES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY ONLY SEE A FEW INCHES.

STILL NOT SURE WHAT STATEMENTS TO ISSUE TO COVER THIS PERIOD AND

CREATE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PUBLIC CONFUSION. WINDS IN THE SIERRA

WILL STILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAYS

SYSTEM…SO NOT SURE IF THE BLIZZARD WARNING SHOULD BE CONTINUED OR IF A WINTER STORM WARNING SHOULD BE ISSUED. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE LEESIDE VALLEYS WILL BE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS BREAKS IN THE SNOWFALL WILL BE BRIEF AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

NWLY UPPER JET MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. H7 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -14C WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR FAST ENOUGH.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ON MONDAY A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO WASHINGTON STATE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WITH THE ZONAL PATTERN AND STRONG JET STREAM IN PLACE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANCE FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO AMPLIFY. AS A RESULT ONE SHORTWAVE AFTER ANOTHER WILL AFFECT THE ERN SIERRA AND WRN NEVADA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON MONDAY THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW. THE GFS SHOWS 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT AROUND -14 DEG CELSIUS OVER THE CNTRL SIERRA. THIS TRANSLATES TO A SNOW LEVEL EASILY TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN WRN NEVADA.

PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW. ON TUESDAY WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS UP WHICH WILL CHANGE SNOW INTO RAIN IN THE VALLEYS OF WRN NEVADA. THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES RISE TO 548 DAM OVER WRN NEVADA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SIERRA. MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY COLDER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING ALL SNOW AGAIN TO THE REGION. LATE THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER FLOW SO HAVE DECIDED TO DECREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIP AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME ACROSS THE SIERRA AS PRECIP MOVES IN. HOWEVER THE STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WIND SPEEDS AT THE SFC. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN BY 12Z WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. NGM MOS GUIDANCE HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 KT AT KRNO BY 21Z THIS AFTN. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN STRONGER AT KTVL AND KTRK.

SNOW HAS MOVED INTO THE CNTRL SIERRA AT 09Z WITH VISIBILITY AT KTVL

DROPPING TO LESS THAN 3SM. PRECIP COVERAGE IS NOT CONTINUOUS SO EXPECT VSBYS AND CEILINGS TO FLUCTUATE THROUGH 15Z BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHSN…MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT FLIGHT PLANNING.

SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES IS EXPECTED IN THE RENO-CARSON AREAS

BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. THIS COULD IMPACT THE HAWKEN BURN AREA AS WELL AS THE LARSON BURN IN NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVY FOR 2-3 HOURS…GUIDANCE FROM AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS SUGGEST WE WILL FALL JUST BELOW CRITERIA. STILL … DAY SHIFT WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION AS THE BAROCLINIC LEAF MOVES INTO THE REGION.

OTHERWISE … SOME LOCALIZED MINOR STREET FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN

RENO-CARSON AND SUSANVILLE. GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE

EXPECTED…WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADIVSORY AS THINGS MAY BE CONFUSING

ENOUGH AS IT IS. ALSO…THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO THE

WINDS AND SNOW.

CA…HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR

CAZ071andgt;073.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ071.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ070.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR

CAZ070.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ072-073.


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