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8:19 p.m. Saturday: Latest Weather Service Bulletins

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

819 PM PST SAT JAN 5 2008



SNOW HAS TAPERED TO SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH ACCUMULATION RATES FALLING. BUT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS POINT TO AREA OF ENHANCED PCPN JUST NORTH OF THE BAY AREA ASCD WITH A JET STREAK AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THESE AREA TRANLATES TO THE EAST WOULD EXPECT TO SEE PCPN RATES INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE SIERRA.



SPILL OVER SHOULD BE QUICK AS WELL WITH PCPN MAKING IT INTO WRN NV AROUND 11 PM.

ANOTHER JET STREAK IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND 37N 135W. THIS WILL LIEKLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA BY EARLY MRNG SUNDAY AND CAUSE SOME SPILL OVER INTO WRN NV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN CURRENT WARNINGS.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME DROP IN WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND ACROSS THE RIDGES THIS EVENING. SPEEDS IN THE JET CORE ARE NOT AS FAST AS EARLIER IN THIS EVENT AND H700 WINDS HAVE DROPPED AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE CUT BACK WINDS JUST A BIT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND KNOCK RIDGE GUSTS DOWN SOME.

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Periods of snow showers, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. West wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Snow showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 15. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Snow likely before 10am, then periods of rain between 10am and 4pm, then periods of snow after 4pm. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Periods of snow showers, mainly before 4am. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 38.

A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

A slight chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 39.

A slight chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

556 PM PST SAT JAN 05 2008

..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…

..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….

..REMARKS..

0259 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S BOCA RESERVOIR 39.36N 120.09W

01/05/2008 3.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES IN THE LAST 45 MINUTES AND STILL SNOWING.

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 S MEYERS 38.79N 120.01W

01/05/2008 60.0 INCH EL DORADO CA MESONET

48 TO 60 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT KIRKWOOD SKI RESORT.

0422 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 N MEYERS 38.93N 120.01W

01/05/2008 12.0 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SATURDAY SO FAR AT TAHOE KEYS.

HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WITH 3 INCHES PER HOUR. 15 INCHES

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A GRAND TOTAL OF 27 INCHES SO

FAR AT LAKE LEVEL.

0422 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 N VERDI 39.51N 119.99W

01/05/2008 9.0 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

9 INCHES NEW SNOW IN CAUGHLIN RANCH THROUGH SATURDAY

MORNING. ADDITIONAL 3 INCHES THROUGH 430 PM.

0451 PM HEAVY SNOW CARSON CITY 39.17N 119.76W

01/05/2008 11.0 INCH CARSON CITY NV CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 4PM WITH 0.82 INCHES OF

PRECIPITATION.

0453 PM HEAVY SNOW SPOONER SUMMIT 39.10N 119.90W

01/05/2008 48.0 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 4PM OF 48.0 INCHES AT SPOONER

SUMMIT.

0459 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 N RENO 39.61N 119.82W

01/05/2008 9.0 INCH WASHOE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

2.5 INCHES NEW SNOW WITH 9.0 INCHES ON THE GROUND AT 4974

FT..

0459 PM HEAVY SNOW GLENBROOK 39.09N 119.94W

01/05/2008 26.0 INCH DOUGLAS NV CO-OP OBSERVER

26.0 INCHES AT 6350 FT AT 5PM WITH TOTAL LIQUID

PRECIPITATION OF 3.63 INCHES FOR 48 HOURS.

0512 PM HEAVY SNOW TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.20W

01/05/2008 M NEVADA CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

I-80 IS CLOSED FROM APPLEGATE TO THE NEVADA STATLINE

UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

0514 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 N VIRGINIA CITY 39.30N 119.65W

01/05/2008 28.0 INCH STOREY NV TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 5PM.

0514 PM HEAVY SNOW TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.14W

01/05/2008 36.0 INCH PLACER CA COAST GUARD

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH AT COAST GUARD STATION LAKE TAHOE AS

OF 5PM.

0520 PM SNOW 5 W FERNLEY 39.61N 119.33W

01/05/2008 M WASHOE NV NEWSPAPER

17 CAR PILEUP ON WESTBOUND INTERSTATE 80 WEST OF FERNLEY.

DETAILS OF INJURIES AND FATALITIES STILL UNKNOWN.

0528 PM HEAVY SNOW DAGGET PASS 38.98N 119.89W

01/05/2008 35.0 INCH DOUGLAS NV CO-OP OBSERVER

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH AS OF 5PM.

0528 PM HEAVY SNOW BODIE 38.21N 119.01W

01/05/2008 37.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

CURRENT SNOW DEPTH AT BODIE STATE PARK AS OF 500PM.

0548 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 SSW TAHOE CITY 39.10N 120.17W

01/05/2008 E6.0 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 530PM IN THE TAHOMA AREA.

OBSERVATION SITES AND FULL TIME STATIONS :

HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY :

LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING :

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING 400 PM PST : :

SNOW DEPTH

FALLON: 45 / 30 / 0.56 / /

LOVELOCK: 43 / 29 / 0 / /

MARKLEEVILLE: 33 / 26 / 2.25 / /

RENO AIRPORT: 35 / 26 / 0.65 / 2 / 4

RENO NORTH HILLS: 33 / 29 / 0.68 / 2.5 / 9.0

SOUTH LK TAHOE ARPT: 27 / 22 / 0.77 / /

SQUAW VALLEY 8K FT CA : 19 / 14 / / /

STATELINE: M / M / / /

THE FOLLOWING OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN AT APPROXIMATELY 500 PM PST :THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AND 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS :IN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WERE RECORDED AT THAT TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY :REFLECT CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. :

BODIE: 34 / 10 / 1.80 / 37 / 37

CARSON CITY: 36 / 26 / 0.82 / 3 / 11

DAGGET PASS: 23 / 17 / 0.68 / 19 / 35

FERNLEY: 40 / 25 / 0.48 / 1 / 1

GLENBROOK: 27 / 23 / 1.80 / 24 / 26

MAMMOTH LAKES: 22 / 18 / 2.62 / 14 / 33

SPANISH SPRINGS: 35 / 22 / 1.55 / 6 / 6

SPARKS: 36 / 23 / 0.76 / 3.5 / 6

RENO…COLD SRINGS VLY: 33 / 25 / 2.45 / 6.8 / 7

STEAD: 30 / 25 / 2.25 / 12.5 / 13

SUSANVILLE: 37 / 24 / 1.55 / 3.5 / 4

TAHOE CITY : 25 / 22 / 2.13 / 24.5 / 36

TRUCKEE AIRPORT: M / 22 / 2.84 / 15 / 23

YERINGTON: 42 / 30 / 1.10 / 1 / 1

MISSING :BLANK NOT REPORTED AT THIS STATION

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

THE THIRD STORM IN THIS LATEST STRING OF WINTER STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA…WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM THE LAKE TAHOE AREA…ACROSS RENO-SPARKS…AND INTO PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ON THE NV VALLEY FLOORS AND 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE SIERRA.

EXCELLENT FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE HELPING TO CREATE THESE WINTER STORM CONDITIONS. WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW THIS STORM TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE … ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY`S 958 MB BEAST.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST SNOW TOTALS…WITH MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS STORM THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST OVER HALF AN INCH TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP…SO WE COULD EASILY SEE 5 TO 10 INCHES ON THE RENO VALLEY FLOOR AND UP TO 18 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO. FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY…THIS STORM WILL BRING IN AT LEAST 1-2 FEET BETWEEN 6000 TO 7000 FEET…INCLUDING AROUND THE LAKE AND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WITH WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THIS…ZERO VISIBILITIES AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD FOR THIS STORM. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE…ALTHOUGH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 100 MPH OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES WILL HELP TO KEEP VISIBILITIES DOWN AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR ANY PLACE SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

WEATHER WILL BEGIN CALMING DOWN SUNDAY…AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE REGION UNDER THE COLD TROUGH. A WEAK JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL BIT OF SNOW IN LASSEN COUNTY…DOWN TO THE TAHOE AREA. NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT HERE…WITH ONLY UP TO 6 INCHES THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RIDGING WILL PUSH IN MONDAY NIGHT THAT WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUR SKIES OUT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS IN TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY… EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING IN ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SIERRA ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS TO 5K IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 7K IN MONO COUNTY WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR LAKE LEVEL AT TAHOE.

THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA WEDNESDAY. INITIAL THOUGHTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SIERRA WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES ARE 6 INCHES OR SO WITH A FOOT ABOVE 8K. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT WITH WEDNESDAY FEATURING JUST LIGHT OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE AS RIDGING OCCURS IN WAKE OF TUESDAYS SHORTWAVE.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY… AT LEAST LOOKING AT THE 12Z SATURDAY RUNS.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS BUILDS A RIDGE OFF THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEEPENS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE PACNW COAST FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PUT OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK IMPULSES DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN NV.

THE EC HOWEVER DIGS A DECENT SHORTWAVE INTO THE PACNW AND GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…SPREADING QPF VALUES OF UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE SIERRA FOR THAT PERIOD. NCEP FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC AND THEIR THINKING IS THAT THE EC IS TOO ROBUST WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA UNTIL THE SCENARIO FOR LATER IN THE WEEK BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PUSHING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSNOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WMC-RNO BY ABOUT 10Z AND FROM ELY-BIH BY 18Z. FOR KTRK AND KTVL –

EXPECT HEAVY SNOW WITH CIGS/VSBYS BLO 010 AND 1/2SM IN SNOW THROUGH 08Z. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIME AND THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW FROM 00Z-06Z. ACCUMULATIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE UP TO 18 INCHES 12Z SUN. KRNO…LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN AS OF 22Z AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN 00Z AND 08Z. THE AIRPORT WILL SEE A PERIOD OF +SN WHICH WILL DECREASE CIGS/VSBYS BLO 010 AND 1/2SM BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RAPID DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AT THE AIRPORT OF AROUND 6 INCHES.

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Periods of snow showers, mainly before 4pm. High near 26. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. West wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Snow showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Snow likely before 10am, then periods of rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 37.

A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

A slight chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 38.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

321 PM PST SAT JAN 5 2008

A 30-MILE WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF

INTERSTATE 80 WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE LATE

AFTERNOON HOURS PRODUCING NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS FROM NEAR

TRUCKEE EAST INTO RENO AND SPARKS AND SOUTH TO LAKE TAHOE.

SNOWFALL RATES IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE

CENTRAL SIERRA COULD REACH 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN THIS BAND OF SNOW THROUGH 5 PM. INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA SNOW FALL RATES WILL BE IN THE 1- TO 2-INCH PER HOUR RANGE. EAST OF RENO…SNOW FALL RATES WILL DROP TO AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR OR LESS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

1222 PM PST SAT JAN 5 2008 .

GOOD FRONTOGENESIS BISECTING THE CWA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SATURATED PROFILES TO AT LEAST 500 MB WILL SUPPORT GOOD SPILLOVER INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE…WE PUSHED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ZONE 1. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR ZONE 4…WE WENT WITH THE SNOW ADVISORY. HOWEVER…ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL SWATH OF 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE AREA.

FOR THE LARGE PICTURE AT MIDDAY…SECONDARY SYSTEM ON TRACK WITH GOOD CLOUD TOP COOLING WITH THE FRONT (BACK EDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY) AND LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUING NEAR SAN FRANCISCO. SNOWFALL RATES ESTIMATED AT 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE SIERRA NEAR LAKE TAHOE BASED ON SNOTEL PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE PAST HOUR. SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT STARTING TO SPILLOVER INTO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NOW…SO WORDING OF WARNINGS RIGHT ON TRACK.

Brisk with snow. Snow accumulation of 8 to 16 inches at lake level…with 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet. Lows 9 to 19. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Ridge gusts up to 105 mph.

Snow showers. Snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches…with 6 to 12 inches above 7000 feet. Highs 23 to 33. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Ridge gusts up to 80 mph.

Snow showers likely. Lows 6 to 16. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Ridge gusts up to 55 mph in the evening.

Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs 18 to 28. West winds around 10 mph.

Cloudy with a chance of snow. Lows 8 to 18.

Cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs 27 to 37.

Snow showers likely. Lows 15 to 25.

Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Highs 26 to 36. Lows 16 to 26.

Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Lows 11 to 21.

Partly cloudy. Highs 25 to 35.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

1107 AM PST SAT JAN 5 2008

…MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL FEET OF SNOW FOR

THE SIERRA..

.HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA AND LAKE TAHOE BASIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE

SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CAZ072-073-NVZ002-060600-

/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080107T0300Z/

GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SOUTH LAKE TAHOE…TAHOE CITY..

TRUCKEE…MARKLEEVILLE…BRIDGEPORT…COLEVILLE…LEE VINING..

MAMMOTH LAKES…GLENBROOK…INCLINE VILLAGE

1107 AM PST SAT JAN 5 2008

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY.

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL

RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY

MORNING WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSNOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY OF 15 TO 30 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BELOW 7000 FEET.. INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN. EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF MONO COUNTY…4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN

ADDITION…LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 100 MPH ON

THE RIDGES WILL CREATE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDTIONS…ESPECIALLY

OVER THE PASSES.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING WINTER STORMS…SLOW

DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELING. CARRY TIRE CHAINS..

FOOD…WATER…BLANKETS AND A FLASHLIGHT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE OF

AN EMERGENCY. CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV

724 AM PST SAT JAN 5 2008

…MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL FEET ALREADY

REPORTED IN THE SIERRA..

.EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THE SIERRA ARE CREATING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE SIERRA AND LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT PASS LEVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY

WINDS WILL MOVE MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT.

WEATHER SPOTTERS IN THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN REPORTED 2 TO 3 FEET OF

SNOW FRIDAY EVENING WHILE REMOTE SENSORS AND SKI AREAS IN THE HIGH SIERRA HAVE RECORDED UP TO 5 FEET OF SNOW SINCE FRIDAY MORNING. SPOTTERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AROUND RENO HAVE REPORTED UP TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ATTEMPTING TO TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA WILL PUT YOUR LIFE AT RISK!

HIGH SNOWFALL RATES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR

ROAD CREWS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TO KEEP ROADS PASSABLE AND TO ASSIST STRANDED VEHICLES.

BELOW 6000 FEET…PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL

PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WINTER CONDITIONS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF

EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE

HEAVY SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY

AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE

REGION TONIGHT.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE WORKING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF PREPARING FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE…SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY. CITIZENS CAN ASSIST IN THIS EFFORT BY STAYING INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE STAFF OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO WOULD LIKE TO

THANK OUR MANY DEDICATED WEATHER SPOTTERS WHO ARE CALLING IN

WEATHER REPORTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CALL IN YOUR VALUABLE

REPORTS.

GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SOUTH LAKE TAHOE…TAHOE CITY..

TRUCKEE…MARKLEEVILLE…BRIDGEPORT…COLEVILLE…LEE VINING..

MAMMOTH LAKES…GLENBROOK…INCLINE VILLAGE

724 AM PST SAT JAN 5 2008

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS

AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AND CONTINUE

THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 30 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM 6000 TO 7000 FEET…INCLUDING THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN…WITH 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS OF MONO COUNTY…4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION…LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 100 MPH ON THE RIDGES WILL CREATE LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDTIONS…ESPECIALLY OVER THE PASSES.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING WINTER STORMS…SLOW

DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN TRAVELING. CARRY TIRE CHAINS..

FOOD…WATER…BLANKETS AND A FLASHLIGHT IN YOUR CAR IN CASE OF

AN EMERGENCY. CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RENO OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

Periods of snow. Some thunder is also possible. High near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Periods of snow. Low around 17. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Periods of snow showers, mainly before 4pm. High near 24. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. West wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. West wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH OCCASIONAL SPILLOVER INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA AS FORECAST WITH FIRST VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE NOW ON ITS WAY OUT. NEXT SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A NICE COMMA CLOUD IN THE COLD AIR.

LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE BAND. WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE AREA AND STEEP LAPSE RATES…ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTH OF CARSON CITY IN EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA.

WILL UPDATE TO MENTION THE STORMS. WITH THE BAND BEING FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WILL INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN THESE SAME AREAS FOR TODAY. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH WITH VERY COLD TEMPS…15-20 TO 1 IN ALL AREAS.

ALSO…WITH THE BANDS…SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE IMPRESSIVE…BUT NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. 2-3 INCHES/HR IN THE SIERRA WITH 1-2 INCHES WESTERN NV ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL BIG BLOW NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA…BUT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS. STRONG JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS NOW INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV. COLD AIR WELL ENTRENCHED WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING IN THE SIERRA FROM FREDONYER PASS SOUTH TO MAMMOTH. SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT INTO EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO MORE JET STREAKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ROTATING AROUND THE UPEPR LOW. THESE WILL FOCUS ON TAHOE- MONO AND ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR OF WESTERN NEVADA. THE FIRST IS INSIDE 130W WITH THE SECOND AT 140W. MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE PRESENTATION ON WV IMAGERY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH QPF…ADDING SOME NAM FOR THE SIERRA ONLY. NAM HAS A DRY BIAS WITH COLD SYSTEMS IN WRN NV WHEN SPILLOVER IS POSSIBLE.

THE FIRST JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM…EXPECT THE INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA AND EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA.

THEN…SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS RATHER DIFFUSE AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE FOR TONIGHT LOOKDS TO BE DOMINANT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND WRN NV…LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE SIERRA BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVE. A FEW INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL WITH AROUND A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH A COUPLE INCHES IN WESTERN NEVADA LOOK GOOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT TIMES…BUT WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIDGES WILL STILL GUST NEAR 100 HOWEVER.

THE SECOND JET STREAK FOR TONIGHT IS MORE IMPRESSIVE ON THE MODELS…AND THIS DOES MAKE SENSE AS IT THE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE A STRONGER GRADIENT IN THE WATER VAPOR. THIS WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR SOME HEAVY SNOW EVEN INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS … UNSTABLE PROFILES…AND THE JET STREAK JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN JET IS VERY FAR SOUTH…

GFS RESOLVES IT SOMEWHAT AND PREFER IT TO THE NAM. ALSO…WITH SPILLOVER FAVORED WITH THE ABOVE…NAM APPEARS MUCH TOO DRY WITH TOO MUCH SHADOWING. LOCAL 8KM WRF PERFORMS BETTER WITH SPILLOVER…BUT REQUESTED RUN NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.

GFS FORECASTING 3/4 INCH AT KRNO FOR THE 24 HRS ENDING 12Z SUN. USING LOCAL SPILLOVER GUIDANCE FOR KBLU-KRNO WATER RATIO IN COLD SYSTEMS (1.5-2 TO 1)…THIS LOOKS REASONABLE IF NOT UNDERDONE AS KBLU HAS 2-3 INCHES FORECAST ON THE MODELS.

ANOTHER 6-12 INCHES LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SIERRA FRONT WITH UP TO 2 FEET ADDITIONAL IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. NORTHERN WASHOE/SURPRISE VALLEY NOT UNDER THE GUN AS MUCH…BUT STILL LOOK TO HAVE WARNING LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FAR AS THE SIERRA…1-2 FEET ADDITIONAL AT LAKE LEVEL MINIMUM WITH 2-4 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE LOCAL AREAS THAT EXCEED THESE FORECASTS…ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MEASURE WITH THE WINDS STILL BLOWING THE SNOW AROUND A BIT.

FOR MINERAL COUNTY…BOTH NAM/GFS SNOW SOME GOOD FRONTOGENESIS THERE. WITH A LONGER BREAK IN SNOW…WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT WARNING EARLY AND ISSUE A WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN SOME FROM YESTERDAY BUT ARE STILL GUSTY. SPEEDS OF 15-30 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 OR 45 MPH. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ANYMORE. AS A RESULT WILL DOWNGRADE BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND EXTEND INTO SUNDAY. WILL JUST MENTION LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT…EVERYTHING SHOULD START WINDING DOWN WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERN NV BUT A BIT MORE NUMEROUS IN THE SIERRA.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE QUITE A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE…IT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 30S IN WRN NV WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS AND 20S IN THE SIERRA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MODIFIED DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE GONE WITH LOWER MAV GUIDANCE AS A BASIS.

.

ON TUESDAY MODELS STILL BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE GFS…ECMWF AND UKMET ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 140W AT 00Z TUESDAY. THE FAST PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST COAST BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH ITS TROUGH THAN IS THE EURO BUT BOTH BRING COLD AIR INTO THE NRN SIERRA AND NRN NEVADA.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR GREATER POPS IN THE FAR NWRN ZONES FOR TUESDAY AND THEN INTO MONO COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT.

A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ERN PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC. THE WLY FLOW BRINGS A TONGUE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY 1.50 INCHES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY 00Z THURSDAY. PWAT AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH ARE PROGGED BY THE GFS TO REACH THE WRN SIERRA ON THURSDAY.

THE GFS AND EURO HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE IN SHOWING RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE SHOWING UP ON LOCAL RADARS AT 10Z. IR SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS BKN SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MADE IT INTO ERN NEVADA. VERY COLD AIR CAN BE INFERRED FROM THIS MORNING`S SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND NRN CALIFORNIA. AS THIS COLD AIR FILTERS IN THIS MORNING THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND SHSN SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THIS TREND IN THE SHOWERY PRECIP IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST TAFS.

SHSN AND SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SIERRA. CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE MVFR WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE BANDS OF SNOW THAT WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

NV…

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ005.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ002.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NVZ001.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ003.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ004.

CA…

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ071.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ070.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ072-073.

http://WEATHER.GOV/RENO


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