Tahoe Market Pulse: It’s a bullish time of year
November 25, 2015
Some retailers will have Black Friday sales one day early, on Thanksgiving Day. Fortunately, the stock market is closed.
When the market opens for its shortened trading day on Friday, it will be in a period in which prices usually rise. So says Jay Kaeppel, author of "Seasonal Stock Market Trends."
Kaeppel found one of the most bullish time periods begins at the close of trading on the Friday before Thanksgiving and ends on the third trading day in January.
How good is this period? There have been 66 periods for this "Santa Claus rally" from 1949 through 2014. Of those, the Dow rose 55 times. In other words, the Dow has advanced 83 percent of the time.
The average gain during a Santa Claus rally was 3.24 percent. The best year was 1991-92 when the Dow advanced 13.90 percent. The worst year was 1977-78 with the Dow falling 3.70 percent.
Will the period be a bullish again this year? Earnings won't help. While third-quarter profits for 60 percent of S&P companies were better than Wall Street expected, the bar was set pretty low.
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Revenues for fewer than half the companies exceeded expectations and overall earnings declined. Our anemic growth rate has become the norm, not an occasional exception. For decades three percent GDP growth was unacceptably low.
Now it's unattainably high. In the third quarter GDP grew at an annual rate of just 1.5 percent, undermined by weak business investment.
Companies have little confidence in economic growth, so they'd rather buy back stock than build plants and add equipment.
The tailwind is central bank accommodation. While our Fed may raise rates from nowhere to nowhere in December, central banks around the world are pumping money into the system and the tragic events in France may only speed the pace.
The Santa Claus rally that Mr. Kaeppel highlights has worked in 27 of the last 29 years. It's hard to beat those odds.
David Vomund is an Incline Village-based fee-only Registered Investment Adviser. Information is found at http://www.VomundInvestments.com or by calling 775-832-8555. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial adviser before purchasing any security.