Market Beat: Stocks and the election outcome
TRUCKEE, Calif. – If you’re like me, you’ll be glad when the presidential election is over. I can’t recall an election in my lifetime that was this close in the polls and saw our country so divided. The partisan vitriol seems to have hit levels lower than I ever could have imagined. Regardless of your political leanings, you should be aware of how the election results could affect stocks.As the presidential election nears it may be prudent to review your portfolio for holdings that could be impacted by the election result. CNBC has put together some model portfolios that are based on the outcome of the presidential election. Remember, the election is just one of several variables that can affect the performance of a stock and the portfolios should not be considered as investment recommendations.CNBC has compiled data from variety of sources and concluded that a Romney win would be good for coal, oil and gas exploration, aerospace and defense and managed health care. Tobacco stocks are also favored with a Romney victory. Some of the names that they have mentioned include Arch Coal, Philip Morris, Lockheed Martin, United Health and Haliburton.On Obama win should favor health care facilities, automobile manufacturers, semiconductors and industrial conglomerates. Some of the names mentioned in the President Obama portfolio include, Healthsouth, First Solar, Tesla and Jack Welch’s old company General Electric. General Electric makes wind turbines, engines for high speed rail and Jack Welch is the former CEO who was widely criticized last week for saying that the unemployment numbers were suspect.One interesting thing I noticed about their model portfolios was that the Romney portfolio was focused on a few specific sectors and the Obama portfolio has more individual names spread out across more sectors of the economy.Four years ago the stock market was in a serious decline and has roughly doubled since then. The fed has pumped trillions of dollars into the economy from the rounds of quantitative easing and operation twist and a lot of those funds have found their way into the stock market.Another interesting trend over the last four years that is likely to continue is the move towards energy independence. This year the US has produced 83 percent of the energy that is has consumed up from 73.8 percent in 2008.Natural gas production is up 18 percent since January 2009 and we produce 1.5 million more barrels of oil per day and import 1 million fewer barrels per day than in 2008. Energy could be a good play regardless of the election result.Kenneth Roberts is a Truckee based Registered Investment Advisor. Information on his money management service can be found at http://www.fusiontargetretirement.com or by calling 775-657-8065. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial adviser before purchasing any security.
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INCLINE VILLAGE, Nev. – The Incline Village Community and Business Association will host its first “Inclined to Meet” monthly community program online at 7 p.m. Thursday, April 22.