Professor: Economic recovery could take awhile in Truckee/Tahoe
December 15, 2009
TRUCKEE, Calif. and#8212; While the economy is showing signs of improvement, an area economics professor says recovery may move slowly in Truckee/Tahoe and#8212; mainly due to dual influences of Nevada and California.
and#8220;Truckee is right in between California and Nevada, two of the worst states and#8212; at least itand#8217;s not between Michigan,and#8221; said University of Nevada, Reno, economics Professor Tom Harris, during the Dec. 8 Daybreak Club meeting. and#8220;The recession is not evenly distributed.and#8221;
He said Nevada Countyand#8217;s unemployment is 11.2 percent, lower than the state average of 12.5 percent, but above the national 10.2 percent.
Surrounding counties arenand#8217;t doing as well, however, with Plumas County holding an about 14 percent unemployment rate.
Some indications nationally, like a 3.4 percent increase in the gross domestic product, a slow in the rise in unemployment and rundowns in manufacturerand#8217;s inventories, all lend themselves to some optimism, Harris said.
and#8220;Those things are good but nowhere near the levels they were at before,and#8221; Harris said. and#8220;Consumption has come back, but the government is part of that consumption, with things like Cash for Clunkers.and#8221;
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Using high unemployment numbers as an indicator of the recession may not give the most up-to-date picture, he said.
and#8220;Itand#8217;s a lagging indicator and#8212; businesses donand#8217;t know when the recession is over so they start increasing hours first before rehiring,and#8221; Harris said.
The looming threat of inflation or a commercial property fallout could take the recovery off track, Harris said, despite some national predictions, like those of Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, which say the economy will rebound.
and#8220;I hope Bernanke is a good economist,and#8221; Harris said. and#8220;Some worry we could have a double dip.and#8221;