Despite reports, the real estate sky isn’t falling
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Well, not really. After a tumultuous five or six years of real estate appreciation I don’t think I’ll ever see again, we are now in what I would call a “normal” market.
For those of you with a lead foot, we’ve just gone from the left lane of speed to the exit ramp on the right headed for neighborhood speeds of 25 mph or less. It’s hard to adjust at first, of course, but after a while you feel comfortable cruising the streets at a less frantic pace.
That’s where we are with this current real estate market. A less frantic pace. Right now you would think it’s pretty much a buyer’s market out there, but I would disagree. Inventory is low in our area, so right now is the time to put your home on the market. Don’t do what everybody ” and I mean everybody ” else is doing, which is waiting for the spring.
The flood of inventory of newly listed homes in the spring will bring the market down just a bump, like hitting a pothole in the road. Just a pothole mind you, but a pothole just the same. That will probably be the bottom of the market, then a more realistic return on your real estate investment of 2 percent to 5 percent a year.
Smart sellers will market their homes now and beat the rush, or the flood I should say. The lack of activity on the real estate market bottomed out in October of 2006. November has seen some big increases in activity. So history will tell the story of a real estate market peaking in June of ’05 and hitting the bottom in October of ’06 with a slight bump in the road in June again of this year.
A basic 2 percent to 5 percent return on your real estate investment for the next few years will hold true. For those of you knowing of the “Aspenization” of Truckee, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The amount of change Truckee has witnessed the last 10 years will again repeat itself in the next 10 ” and we will still be behind Colorado.
As an investment, we have a long way to go to before becoming “Aspen.” We’ll get there though, for better or worse, I’m sure.
That’s it for now. Open the next edition of the Sierra Sun to see if I’m correct or not. The opinions carried herein are just that, opinions. I cannot be responsible for the true outcome of the real estate market for the next five minutes, much less the next five years.
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