GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA, Calif./ Nev. – The Tahoe basin snowpack is near normal levels for this time of year, but a drier forecast looms following early January’s storms.

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR), which monitors the west side of the Sierra, measured the snowpack at 91% of average for this time of year. The survey conducted on Jan. 2 near Sierra-at-Tahoe recorded 24 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent (inches of water contained in the snowpack) at nine inches. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), the lead agency for measuring the Sierra’s east-side basins, including the Tahoe basin, found Lake Tahoe’s snowpack as of Jan. 1 at 98% of average and 122% of the median for this time of year.

NRCS uses the median value as their “normal” value since average values can become skewed during large snow years like those in 2023 and 2017.

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Although these survey numbers place Tahoe’s snowpack near normal for this time of year, what do these values mean for the winter season snowpack as a whole? According to NRCS Water Supply Specialist, Jeff Anderson, Lake Tahoe’s snowpack is about a third of the way to a normal winter’s worth of accumulation with peaks occurring in late March or early April.

“It is still very early in the winter and hopefully there is a lot more snow to come,” Anderson says. “We’ll need lots of little storms or a handful of big storms in January, February and March to get there.”

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He looks at last winter’s leap day storm as a reminder of how quickly things can change when the storm delivered 25% of Tahoe’s normal peak snowpack in just four days.

This winter so far is characterized by rain at lower elevations and storms favoring the north and west side of the basin. This is why low elevation snowpacks readings like at Fallen Leaf are below normal at 64% and above normal at Palisade Tahoe (112%) versus measurements from the Heavenly Valley (89%).

The snowpack for California statewide is 108% of average for Jan. 2, according to DWR. Last year, it was 28% of normal.

Recent years in California have been marked by extremely hot and dry conditions broken up by periods of intense rain and snow. DWR says so far, this water year has been no different. A record-breaking hot and dry summer continued well into the fall, but a powerful atmospheric river in November broke several rainfall records in Northern California. A series of storms in late December provided another boost.

“While our snowpack looks good now, we have a long way until April when our water supply picture will be more complete,” says DWR director Karla Nemeth. “Extreme shifts between dry and wet conditions are continuing this winter and if the past several years are any indication, anything could happen between now and April and we need to be prepared.”

After the recent early January precipitation, weather forecasts call for sunny, dry weather.

California is no stranger to this pattern. In both 2013 and 2022, the January snowpack was well above average thanks to December storm activity, only for dry conditions to take over the rest of the winter, quickly erasing early season snow totals and continuing existing drought conditions across the state.

Anderson explains, during extended dry spells the median snow amounts continue to increase, while the amount of snow of the ground doesn’t increase. This results in a slow decline in snowpack percentages until more storms move in. 

Snowpack and snow water equivalent measurements are a key component in determining water supply forecasts and managing water resources. Thanks to two consecutive years of above average snowpack conditions, major California reservoirs stand at 121% of average.

The Sierra snowpack supplies on average about 30% of California’s water needs. Its natural ability to store water is why you’ll hear the Sierra snowpack often referred to as California’s “frozen reservoir.”